Navigating Tensions: The Complex Negotiations Between Armenia and Azerbaijan
The quest for peace continues, through diplomatic efforts and challenges
Rooted in soviet-era competing claims, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan for the control of Nagorno Karabakh has been going on since 1991, when both Armenia and Azerbaijan gained independence from the USSR. Nagorno Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but has been populated by ethnic Armenians for centuries. In 1991, the Republic of Artsakh proclaimed its independence from Azerbaijan and affirmed control over a big part of historical Nagorno Karabakh. However, after two wars, in 2020 Artsakh controlled only a small portion of its original territory.
Lastly, in September 2023, Azerbaijan launched an offensive and managed to recapture the remaining territory of Nagorno Karabakh, resulting in a mass evacuation of ethnic Armenians from the region and the dissolution of the Artsakh administration. Since then Armenia and Azerbaijan have worked to achieve long lasting peace and continue a process of normalization of their relations, begun in 2021 and initially mediated by the EU and the US.
Troubled Negotiations
Negotiations haven’t been easy and often came to a standstill as the two countries do not agree on critical points. The current discussions, now without the mediation of the EU and the US, concern a draft peace treaty based on a proposal submitted by Azerbaijan. The content of this treaty is quite unknown as the negotiations have remained largely out of the public sphere. The text, by some deemed as scant, allegedly contains 17 points of contention, scoping through different areas of bilateral cooperation.
However, the two countries have only managed to agree on 13 out of these 17 points, including principles of non-interference and recognition of each other’s territorial integrity. The remaining 4 points have been subject of continuous disagreement between the two countries for months.
The Constitutional Issue
Having little information available on the negotiations we can only speculate about the content of these disputed points and the likelihood that they will be resolved. However, it is well known that one of these issues is related to Armenia’s 1995 Constitution. The preamble of the Constitution cites the 1990 Armenian Declaration of Independence, which establishes claims on Nagorno Karabakh as an integral territory of Armenia. As a matter of fact, Baku has repeatedly called upon the Armenian government to amend the constitution and erase said reference to avoid a resurgence of claims over the region.
Public statements given by the Yerevan government, primarily through PM Pashinian, keep changing and paint a contrasting picture. Pashinian has often signaled an intention to change the constitution, while other times he has asked Azerbaijani president Aliyev to drop this request. Nevertheless, the government has already ordered a new constitution to be drafted by the end of 2026, which could exclude the controversial reference. The adoption of the new constitution would require the approval of the population through a referendum, already scheduled for 2027, but many seem against such a change. As a matter of fact, the referendum is perceived by the population and by the political opposition as driven by Azerbaijani pressures and thus will probably fail. Likely aware of this issue, Pashinian has publicly and privately tried reassuring Azerbaijan that Armenia would not advance any other claims on Nagorno Karabakh regardless of constitutional changes. The Constitutional Court has also downplayed the importance of the reference to the 1990 Declaration, although the opposition claims that this decision was forced by the government. Nevertheless, Baku doesn’t budge and insists on a constitutional change.
The Zangezur Corridor
Another controversial topic is the transport links between the two countries, as the border has been closed for more than 30 years. This is especially relevant for the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, an Azerbaijani exclave in south west Armenia. According to the Russia-mediated ceasefire agreement signed after the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh was, the exclave should have been connected to Azerbaijan through the Zangezur corridor in southern Armenia. This project has never been implemented as disagreements over the administration of the corridor remain. Baku insists on having full control over roads and railways in the corridor even though previously it only asked for transports towards Nakhchivan to be exempt from border checks. On the other side, Yerevan seems reluctant towards both proposals and will likely try to pursue other solutions. According to the ceasefire agreement, the corridor, controlled by Russian border guards, should have been open to Azerbaijani people and cargo. However, it is unlikely that this will materialize as Armenia’s relations with Russia have been progressively more tense and the government has been downscaling the presence of Russian border guards and soldiers in the country.
A thorny situation
The tense negotiations are worsened by discontent from the Armenian civil society and political sphere. Throughout 2024 the population has expressed dissatisfaction for the many concessions made to Azerbaijan. As Armenia ceded control of four border villages in the northern region of Tavush to Baku, locals protested against the government, especially against Pashinian who presented the concession as a necessary step towards a much needed peace agreement. A local archbishop, Bagrat Galstanian, led a march to Yerevan from Kirants, one of the villages whose control was ceded, demanding Pashinian’s resignation. The march was also joined by prominent opposition leaders and students. Azerbaijan has been in a dominant position since the recapture of Nagorno Karabakh. According to opposition, such concessions will embolden Azerbaijan to up its requests and demand even more. While protests have simmered down during the summer, opposition parties and civil society are still demanding that Pashinian resign.
The path forward
At the moment, it seems that there is little to no progress on the peace agreement. The Armenian government is urging Azerbaijan to sign the agreement including only the 13 points that have already been agreed upon and resolve the remaining ones at a later time. However Baku is reluctant to do so and insists on having its requests met and all the points agreed upon before signing. Both parties seem stuck in irreconcilable positions, with the Armenian government being in an especially difficult situation due to internal dissent. More developments are likely to come after the COP 29 that will be held in November in Baku, although there is uncertainty about which kind of developments.
I follow many content creators and writers that deal with grim topics. One thing that I really appreciate about their content is ending with a so-called palate cleanser to remind people that the world can also be a nice place, so I decided I would do the same thing here.
While I was looking into dialogue projects involving Armenians and Azerbaijani civilians, I stumbled upon two very interesting articles about similarities in Armenian and Azerbaijani traditional music and culture, one by Leon Aslanov on the Ajam Media Collective and one by Javid Agha on OC Media. From songs and dances with similar themes and lyrics to code-switching between Armenian and Azerbaijani and playing together throughout the 20th century, music has united the two populations for centuries. Agha also talked about a club culture project, Boiler Room. During a live stream tour in the South Caucasus, Armenian DJ Onetreeevn appeared from Yerevan wearing a t-shirt with “Music has no enemies. Baku and Yerevan are friends. Earth is our home” written on it. This message gained approval among young Azerbaijanis and Armenians and gives some hope for more peaceful relations between the two populations.